Hybrideseminar: Global supply chain pressures, inflation, and implications for monetary policy
Dinsdag 27 februari 2024 geeft Andra Smadu (DNB) een presentatie getiteld: "Global supply chain pressures, inflation, and implications for monetary policy." Indien u wilt deelnemen stuurt u een e-mail naar Simone Pailer (S.Pailer@cpb.nl). U wordt aangemeld bij de receptie of ontvangt een Webex-uitnodiging via Outlook. Journalisten dienen zich tevens te melden bij woordvoerder Jeannette Duin: J.E.C.Duin@cpb.nl
How should policymakers respond to the recent surge in inflation? This paper examines the impact of global supply chain pressures on euro area inflation and the implications for monetary policy. A Phillips curve analysis shows that global supply chain pressures contribute positively and significantly to inflation in the euro area. Furthermore, results from a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive model show that shocks to global supply chain pressures were the dominant driver of euro area inflation in 2022, and that these shocks have a highly persistent and hump-shaped impact on inflation. Finally, a two-country New Keynesian model with trade in intermediate goods shows that the optimal monetary policy response to global-supply-induced inflation is a non-linear function of the degree of global value chain participation.
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