CPB calculations of trade impacts show a structural GDP loss (by 2020) of 110 billion euros for the EU as a whole, and 9 billion for the Netherlands; a respective decrease in GDP of 0.7% and 1.3%. The larger GDP loss for the Netherlands is due to the greater openness of the Dutch economy. This is one of the conclusions of the Central Economic Plan 2016 (CEP), published today by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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On 7 March 2016, CPB Policy Brief 2016/03 (in Dutch) was published containing Chapter 1 of the CEP as well as the main economic indicators. The full report is now also available, containing more background information and details on the international economy and the Dutch economy, government finances and purchasing power projections for 2016 and 2017. The CEP traditionally contains a number of text boxes in which certain issues are elaborated. In addition to the text box on the impact of reinstating border controls, there are those on the uncertainties about the projections (shown in fan charts), the relationship between the development of the wedge and the economy, the downward impact of the financial sector on the labour income share, the large share of the government civil service with executive tasks, and the way in which the increasing influx of asylum seekers is incorporated in the projections. A CPB Background Document (in Dutch) to the CEP is also published, with information on the projections and the European budgetary regulations.
 
Macro economic indicators (see also the Press Release of 7 March)
The Dutch economy is projected to grow by 1.8% this year and 2.0% next year. Basic growth levels in both years are comparable; the lower revenues from natural gas sales will dampen this year’s growth by 0.2%. The growth in production is coupled with an increase in employment which, in turn, is driven by the growth in the market sector. Labour supply is also increasing, but less so than employment. On balance, there will be a slight decrease in unemployment, down to 6.3% in 2017. Purchasing power will increase this year by 2.3% due to the low inflation level, the resulting substantial rise in real wages, and the reduction in financial burden because of the 5-billion-euro package of measures. For next year, median household purchasing power is projected to grow by 0.2%. Because of the continuing moderate economic recovery, the government deficit will decrease from 1.9% of GDP this year, to 1.7% in 2016 and 1.2% in 2017. The continuing economic recovery and decrease in unemployment result in lower expenditure on unemployment benefits. Lower natural gas revenues, caused by lower production and a lower price level, will have an attenuating effect on deficit reduction.