June 19, 2003

Structural estimates of equilibrium unemployment in six OECD economies

Sociale voorzieningen en vakbondsmacht zorgen voor structureel hoge werkloosheid

Press release
Ook bij hoge en langdurige werkloosheid treden er in Europa geen sterke reële loondalingen op. In theorie valt in die situatie loonmatiging te verwachten, omdat werknemers dan een groot risico lopen hun baan te verliezen. De goede sociale voorzieningen in Europa beperken echter het risico van terugval in inkomen.

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In Europe, neither unemployment rates nor institutions are uniform. In the EMU, countries have coordinated their monetary policy, and fiscal policy might follow.

Does convergence in fiscal policy imply that unemployment rates will converge, too, or is diversified fiscal policy desirable? An answer to this question requires insight into the dependence on fiscal policy of the unemployment rate in equilibrium. This study estimates the equilibrium rate of unemployment and shows that it has been affected significantly by taxes and benefits. Uniform fiscal policy would not, however, harmonise the unemployment rates because the impact of policy varies widely across the OECD economies.

Authors

Albert van der Horst