August 22, 2012

Preliminary table Main Economic Indicators 2010-2013 (August 2012)

Budget deficit to 2,7 percent, some growth recovery in 2013

Press release
CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) expects the 2013 budget deficit (EMU balance) to be 2,7 percent, or 17 billion Euros. In 2013, the Dutch economy recovers slowly, with a modest growth of ¾ percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), after a decrease of ½ percent in 2012.

This was announced today by CPB through the publication of the draft-figures of the Macro Economic Outlook 2013.

Take a look at the Table Extended Main Economic Indicators.

In 2012 the Dutch economy develops more positively than previously expected, as is shown by recent data on the first two quarters from Statistics Netherlands. Both exports and government expenditure have grown more than expected in the most recent June forecast, although household consumption has been decreasing more. This leads to a more limited decrease of GDP than earlier forecasted. The 2012 inflation rate will be 2¼ percent and median purchasing power is down by 2 percent. For 2013 these numbers are 2 percent inflation and ¾ percent less purchasing power, respectively.

The forecasted budget deficit (EMU balance) will be 2,7 percent GDP in 2013. This is a bit better than the expected 2,9 percent deficit previously projected. The main reasons for this change are higher income from healthcare premiums and the upward adjustment of the EMU balance of local governments (mainly municipalities and provinces) in 2011. On the other hand, natural gas revenues have been lower due to the lower oil price. Unemployment will grow in 2013, likely to an annual mean figure of 6 percent, or 515.000 persons.

These are draft figures for the Macro Economic Outlook 2013, which includes forecasts for 2012 and 2013. The numbers released today can still change before final publication on parliamentary Budget Day (‘Prinsjesdag’, 18 September).

CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis will not comment on these draft figures besides this press release. Please note that these new figures were not used for the calculation of the effects of the election manifestos, to be published on Monday, 27 August. This is inevitable but without difficulty, given the limited effect of these new figures on those calculations.

Read the accompanying press reslease.

Preliminary table 'Extended main economic indicators', 2010-2013, August 2012

International items
 2010201120122013
Relevant world trade (vol. %)

11.3

4.0

1/4

3 1/2

Import price goods (%)

7.3

4.9

2

-1/4

Export price competitors (%)

7.9

6.3

3 1/2

1 1/2

Crude oil price (Brent, $)

79.5

111.3

104

95

Exchange rate (dollar p euro)

1.33

1.39

1.27

1.25

Long-term interest rate
(level in %)

3.0

2.9

2.0

2.4

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
 2010201120122013
Gross domestic product
(GDP, economic growth) (%)

1.6

1.0

-1/2

3/4

Value gross domestic
product (GDP) (bln euro)

588.7

602.0

607

623

Private consumption (%)

0.3

-1.0

-1

0

Public demand (%)

0.3

-0.6

-1/2

-3/4

Gross fixed investment,
private non-residential (%)

-5.2

10.2

-2 1/2

3

Exports of goods
(non-energy) (%)

13.5

4.3

4 1/4

4

of which domestically
produced (%)

9.7

3.8

-1/4

3 1/4

re-exports (%)

17.0

4.7

8 1/4

4 3/4

Imports of goods (%)

12.2

4.1

3 1/2

2 3/4

Prices, wages and purchasing power
 2010201120122013
Export price goods
(excluding energy) (%)

4.3

1.4

1

1

Price competitiveness (%)

2.2

0.8

2 3/4

3/4

Consumer prices (CPI) (%)

1.3

2.3

2 1/4

2

Consumer prices
(harmonised, HICP) (%)

0.9

2.5

2 1/2

1 3/4

Price of gross
domestic product (%)

1.1

1.2

1 1/4

1 3/4

Price of national
expenditure (%)

1.2

0.8

1 3/4

2

Contractual wages
market sector (%)

1.0

1.4

1 3/4

2 1/4

Compensation per full-time
employee market sector (%)

1.7

2.1

3 1/4

2 3/4

Gross wage Jones family
(in euro's)

32500

33000

33000

33500

Purchasing power (Jones,
one-income household) (%)

-1.2

-1.2

-2 1/4

-1/2

Purchasing power
(median, all households) (%)

-0.5

-0.9

-1 3/4

-3/4

Labour market (international definition 'labour force', unless stated differently)
 2010201120122013
Population (x 1000 pers.)

16615

16693

16755

16820

Labour force (15-74)
(x 1000 pers.)

8748

8744

8860

8890

Employed labour force
(15-74) (x 1000 pers.)

8357

8357

8390

8370

Unemployment
(x 1000 pers.)

391

387

470

515

Employed Persons
(15-74) (%)

-0.4

0.7

0

-1/4

Labour force
(15-74) (%)

-0.3

0.0

1 1/4

1/4

Employed labour
force (15-74) (%)

-1.1

0.0

1/2

-1/4

Unemployment rate
(% labour force)

4.5

4.4

5 1/4

5 3/4

Idem, national definition
(% labour force)

5.5

5.3

6 1/4

7

Market sector
 2010201120122013
Production (%)

1.1

1.4

-1

1

Labour productivity (%)

2.9

1.0

-1

2

Employment
 (labour years) (%)

-1.8

0.4

0

-1

Price gross value added (%)

2.0

0.3

1/4

1

Real labour costs (%)

-0.3

1.8

3

2

Labour share in
enterprise income
 (level in %)

78.7

78.7

81 3/4

81 1/2

General government
 2010201120122013
General government financial
balance (% GDP)

-5.1

-4.5

-3.6

-2.7

Gross debt general
government (% GDP)

63.1

65.5

71.6

72.9

Taxes and social security
contributions (% GDP)

38.8

38.4

39.0

40.1

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