May 7, 2010
Forecasting in times of crisis. CPB-forecasts during the great recession
Economische ramingen kunnen nooit zekerheid bieden
Press release
De Nederlandse economie kromp in 2009 met 4%. Het Centraal Planbureau heeft deze enorme klap niet zien aankomen. Nog in september 2008 raamde het CPB een economische groei van 1¼% voor 2009.
We are sorry, unfortunately there is no English translation of this page.
We conclude that due to the character of macroeconomic short-term forecasts, it is most unlikely that CPB and other forecasting institutes will be able to forecast the next financial crisis adequately.
The options for really improving the accuracy of the forecasts are limited. Forecasters of short-term macroeconomic developments who claim the opposite, promise too much, users who claim the opposite, demand too much.
This publication is in Dutch.
Authors
Mark Roscam Abbing
Jasper de Jong
Johan Verbruggen