Decemberraming 2011: economische vooruitzichten 2012

Go to the Data accompanying this Short-term forecast.

The forecasted 2012 budget deficit passes the ‘signal margin’ by 0.4%. This was made public today by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its December forecast, published as CPB Policy Brief 2011/13 (only available in Dutch). 

This December forecast is based on a ‘muddling-through scenario’, which assumes that the Eurozone crisis will neither be solved, nor further escalated downwards. The forecast also assumes that the financial markets will see some tranquillity in the course of 2012, while economic growth will also slowly return. However, for this moment it is uncertainty that mostly determines the European economies, which leads to a decrease of the relevant world trade  for the Netherlands in 2012 and a negative GDP growth for the Eurozone area as a whole. 

The Dutch economy is in recession. The expected slight recovery of economic growth will not be seen until the second half of 2012. Dutch GDP in 2012 will be ½percent lower, compared to 2011. This economic decline is mostly due to lower foreign trade. In addition, Dutch consumers and investors keep spending levels down, while growth is also negatively impacted by restrictive budgetary policies. 

The current forecast is less optimistic about the public budget than the previous forecast of September 2011. This is almost exclusively due to the worsened growth prospects. The forecasted budget deficit in 2012 passes the so-called ‘signal margin’. However, the budgetary rules set by the current government only call for additional measures if this will also be the case in the forecast for 2013. CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis will publish its first 2013 forecast in February 2012.