June 16, 2014

CPB's short-term forecasts June 2014

The Dutch economy is projected to grow by ¾% this year, and a slight increase in GDP growth up to 1¼% is projected for next year. Inflation will be low in both years. The EMU deficit is expected to reach 2.2% in 2015. This is the second forecast made in 2014.

Main Conclusions
The table 'Main economic indicators', 2012-2015
Graph 'Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2015'
Related Publication
Appendix: Main Economic Indicators for the Netherlands, 1970-2015
Appendix: Key data for the world economy and external data for the Netherlands, 1975-2015

Main conclusions

Read the accompanying press release.

Table 'Main economic indicators', 2012-2015 (June 2014)

International items
	2012	2013	2014	2015
Relevant world trade volume (%)	0.7	1.7	3 1/2	5
Export price competitors (%)	4.1	-2.0	-1	3/4
Crude oil price (Brent, level in dollars per barrel)	111.7	108.7	108	108
Exchange rate (dollar per euro)	1.28	1.33	1.38	1.38
Long-term interest rate the Netherlands (level in %)	1.9	2.0	1.9	2.0

GDP and demand (volume)
	2012	2013	2014	2015
Gross domestic product (GDP, economic growth, %)	-1.2	-0.9	3/4	1 1/4
Consumption households (%)	-1.6	-2.1	-1/4	3/4
Consumption general government (%)	-0.7	-0.9	-1/4	0
Capital formation including changes in stock (%)	-2.7	-6.2	4 3/4	2 1/4
Exports of goods and services (%)	3.2	1.4	3	4
Imports of goods and services (%)	3.3	-0.2	3 1/4	3 1/2

Prices, wages and purchasing power
	2012	2013	2014	2015
Price gross domestic product (%)	1.3	1.7	1/2	1 1/4
Export price domestically produced goods (non energy, %)	1.7	0.6	-1/2	3/4
Import price goods (%)	2.7	-1.7	-1 1/4	3/4
National consumer price index (CPI, %)	2.5	2.5	1 1/4	1 1/2
Contractual wages market sector (%)	1.6	1.5	1 1/4	1 3/4
Purchasing power, static, median all households (%)	-2.1	-1.2	1 1/2	1/4

Labour market
	2012	2013	2014	2015
Labour force (%)	1.5	0.8	-1/2	1/4
Active labour force (%)	0.6	-0.7	-1	1/2
Unemployment (in thousands of persons)	469	600	650	635
Unemployed rate (% of the labour force)	5.3	6.7	7 1/4	7 1/4

Market sector
	2012	2013	2014	2015
Production (%)	-1.9	-1.3	1 1/2	1 3/4
Labour productivity (labour years, %)	-1.7	-0.3	1 3/4	1 1/4
Employment (labour years, %)	-0.2	-1.0	-1/4	1/2
Compensation per employee (%)	1.7	2.4	3 1/4	1 1/2
Labour share in enterprise income (level in %)	80.5	81.1	82	81 1/2

Other items
	2012	2013	2014	2015
Private savings (% of disposable household income)	-2.0	-1.0	-1/2	0
Current-account balance (level in % GDP)	7.7	9.6	9 1/4	10 1/4

Public sector
	2012	2013	2014	2015
General government financial balance (% GDP)	-4.1	-2.5	-2.9	-2.2
Gross debt general government (% GDP)	71.3	73.3	74.6	74.9
Taxes and social security contributions (% GDP)	39.0	39.7	40.8	40.3