June 13, 2013
CPBs short-term forecasts June 2013
The Dutch economy this year is projected to fall by 1%. For next year, a slight recovery is projected, leading to a 1% increase in GDP. The budget deficit by 2014 is expected to be 3.7%. This is the second forecast made in 2013.
- Main Conclusions
- The table 'Extended main economic indicators', 2011-2014
- Graph 'Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2014'
- Related Publication
- Appendix: Main Economic Indicators for the Netherlands, 1970-2014
- Appendix: Key data for the world economy and external data for the Netherlands, 1970-2013
Main conclusions
Read the accompanying press release.
Table 'Extended main economic indicators', 2011-2014 (June 2013)
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Relevant world trade (vol. %) | 4.0 | 0.8 | 2 | 4 1/4 |
| Import price goods (%) | 4.9 | 2.8 | -2 1/4 | 1/2 |
| Export price competitors (%) | 6.3 | 4.3 | -1/4 | 1/2 |
| Crude oil price (Brent, $) | 111.3 | 111.7 | 105 | 102 |
| Exchange rate (dollar p euro) | 1.39 | 1.28 | 1.31 | 1.30 |
| Long-term interest rate (level in %) | 2.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross domestic product (GDP, economic growth) (%) | 1.0 | -0.9 | -1 | 1 |
| Value gross domestic product (GDP) (bln euro) | 602.0 | 602.9 | 607 | 620 |
| Private consumption (%) | -1.0 | -1.4 | -1 1/4 | 0 |
| Public demand (%) | -0.6 | -0.3 | -1/2 | 3/4 |
| Gross fixed investment, private non-residential (%) | 10.2 | -2.9 | -10 | 2 |
| Exports of goods (non-energy) (%) | 4.3 | 1.8 | 3 1/4 | 4 1/2 |
| of which domestically produced (%) | 3.8 | 0.2 | 2 1/4 | 3 1/2 |
| re-exports (%) | 4.7 | 3.3 | 4 | 5 1/2 |
| Imports of goods (%) | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3/4 | 4 1/4 |
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Export price goods (excluding energy) (%) | 1.4 | 0.6 | -1 1/4 | 1/2 |
| Price competitiveness (%) | 0.9 | 3.8 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Consumer prices (CPI) (%) | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2 1/2 | 1 3/4 |
| Consumer prices (harmonised, HICP) (%) | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2 3/4 | 1 1/2 |
| Price of gross domestic product (%) | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1 1/2 | 1 |
| Price of national expenditure (%) | 0.8 | 1.9 | 1 3/4 | 1 1/2 |
| Contractual wages market sector (%) | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1 1/2 | 1 1/2 |
| Compensation per full-time employee market sector (%) | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1 3/4 | 2 1/4 |
| Gross wage Jones family (in euro's) | 33500 | 33000 | 32500 | 33000 |
| Purchasing power (Jones, one-income household) (%) | -1.2 | -2.5 | -1 1/2 | -1 |
| Purchasing power (median, all households) (%) | -1.0 | -2.5 | -1 1/4 | 1/4 |
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (x 1000 pers.) | 16693 | 16754 | 16800 | 16845 |
| Labour force (15-74) (x 1000 pers.) | 8746 | 8879 | 8960 | 9010 |
| Employed labour force (15-74) (x 1000 pers.) | 8357 | 8409 | 8360 | 8375 |
| Unemployment (x 1000 pers.) | 389 | 470 | 600 | 635 |
| Employed Persons (15-74) (%) | 0.7 | -0.1 | -3/4 | 0 |
| Labour force (15-74) (%) | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Employed labour force (15-74) (%) | 0.0 | 0.6 | -1/2 | 1/4 |
| Unemployment rate (% labour force) | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6 3/4 | 7 |
| Idem, national definition (% labour force) | 5.4 | 6.4 | 8 1/4 | 8 3/4 |
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production (%) | 1.4 | -1.6 | -1 1/2 | 1 1/4 |
| Labour productivity (%) | 1.0 | -1.1 | -1/4 | 1 3/4 |
| Employment (labour years) (%) | 0.4 | -0.5 | -1 1/4 | -1/2 |
| Price gross value added (%) | 0.3 | 1.4 | 1/2 | 1 1/4 |
| Real labour costs (%) | 1.8 | 0.3 | 1 1/4 | 1 |
| Labour share in enterprise income (level in %) | 78.7 | 80.0 | 81 | 80 1/4 |
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| General government financial balance (% GDP) | -4.5 | -4.1 | -3.5 | -3.7 |
| Gross debt general government (% GDP) | 65.5 | 71.2 | 74.6 | 76.3 |
| Taxes and social security contributions (% GDP) | 38.4 | 38.8 | 39.9 | 40.2 |
Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2014
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