Seminar "A lost generation? The wage, employment and demographic effects of graduating during a recession"

Time: 13.00-14.00 hours
Location: CPB-office, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, Den Haag

Presentation: Wiljan van den Berge (CPB)

Discussant: Didier Fouarge (ROA, Universiteit Maastricht)

Language: English

Registration:  Please register here

Abstract subject:
We estimate the labour market and demographic effects of graduating in a recession for highly educated graduates in the Netherlands between 1995 and 2012. We find that graduates on average suffer a 9.3% lower wage in a typical recession in their first year, but that the wage loss fades out four years after graduation. Effects on employment are very small. We find stronger effects for women than for men. Poor entry conditions are associated with lower quality jobs and a higher probability of mismatch. External mobility is the primary mechanism through which graduates catch up to their luckier counterparts. Increased insecurity on the labour market also affects important personal decisions. We show that a higher unemployment rate at graduation is associated with lower fertility and partnership rates up to four years after graduation that persist even if we take into account lower wages and employment rates.

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