Publications

The CPB will use a new time series model to support the forecast of GDP growth. →

Interest rates have been trending downward since at least 1980s in developed economies, including the euro area. In fact, real rates (the real rate is the interest rate adjusted for inflation) are now at historically low levels. →

Capital buffers help banks to absorb financial shocks. This reduces the risk of a banking crisis. However, on the other hand capital requirements for banks can also lead to social costs, as rising financing costs can lead to higher interest rates for customers. In this research we make an exploratory analysis of the costs and benefits of capital buffers for groups of European countries. →

We propose a model-based method to estimate a unique financial cycle based on a rank-restricted multivariate state-space model. This permits us to use mixed-frequency data, allowing for longer sample periods.... →

Dutch households (implicitly) have an unusual mix of assets. Particularly their high level of mortgage debts and pension entitlements stand out in an international context. In this paper we examine how Dutch household... →

We investigate the impact of the financial cycle on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. →

Until recently, macroeconomic theory provided at most a small role for the financial system to influence the real economy. This changed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and the financial crisis which... →

This paper analyses how The Netherlands compares to other countries in terms of the productivity slowdown. It also includes a comparison of different sectors and tests possible explanatory variables. →

We re-estimate the effects of systemic banking crises in industrialised countries reported by Cerra and Saxena with a model that includes transitory business cycle shocks. →