March 25, 2019

CPB World Trade Monitor January 2019

The CPB World Trade Monitor shows that the volume of world trade increased 2.3% in January, having decreased 2.1% in December (initial estimate -1.7%). Due to the US shutdown, no data on US import/export values in January are available. The 0.0% import/export volume growth for the US is a technical assumption.

Developments in global international trade and industrial production January 2019:

World trade volume increased 2.3% month‐on‐month (growth was ‐2.1% in December, initial estimate ‐1.7%). Due to the US shutdown, no data on US import/export values in January are available. The 0.0% import/export volume growth for the US is a technical assumption.
World trade momentum was ‐1.8% (non‐annualised; ‐1.0% in December, initial estimate ‐0.9%).
World industrial production increased 0.0% month‐on‐month (‐0.1% in December, unchanged from initial estimate).
World industrial production momentum was 0.0% (non‐annualised; 0.4% in December, unchanged from initial estimate).

For questions. please contact wtm@cpb.nl.
Read also the CPB Background Document 'The CPB World Trade Monitor: technical description'.
In September 2016 (starting with the July 2016 monitor) the WTM base year has been moved from 2005 to 2010. Clarification of the procedure and its outcomes is given in the downloadable appendix (CPB Memo 'Change of base year WTM').

The next release of the CPB World Trade Monitor is scheduled tentatively for 25 April 2019, 15:00 hours.

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Update 28-03-2019

Due to the US shutdown only now trade data available for US in January (US Census): data shows a 2% decrease of import volume and a 2% increase of export volume vs December. Overall effect on World Trade Monitor for January will be minimal.