Fan Charts short-term forecasts June 2015

The solid line represents data realizations (2010-2014) and the KMEV 2016 point forecasts for 2015 and 2016. Around the central path the figures present a fan of confidence intervals:

• 30% confidence interval from the 35th to 65th percentile, dark orange area
• 60% confidence interval from the 20th to 80th percentile, dark orange + light orange area
• 90% confidence interval from the 5th to 95th percentile, dark orange + light orange + light yellow area

The probability is thus 30% that the outcome will fall in the dark orange area and the probability is 10% that the outcome will fall outside the fan. In other words, the fan is a graphical representation of the likelihood of the various outcomes. The solid line represents the most likely outcome and outcomes are more likely when they are closer to the solid line.