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The Dutch economic growth rate is slowing down due to the ill wind blowing from abroad. Export growth is declining. The waning growth in production has had remarkably little impact on the labour market, which remains tight with a, currently, continuing increase in vacancies and rapid employment growth. Unemployment will remain exceptionally low, according to the projections, but will increase slightly in 2020. Purchasing power will see a positive development because of policy and, in 2020, moderate inflation. The government budget will continue to be in surplus. US trade policy, the chances of a no-deal Brexit, and the instable situation in Italy are important downward risks to the Dutch economy. These are the conclusions by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its latest June Projections. CPB director, Laura van Geest: ‘Despite a rather standard economic growth rate, employment growth will remain remarkably large. Wage increases will be limited, due to the tight labour market—something that, incidentally, is not a uniquely Dutch phenomenon.’ →

We investigate the impact of the financial cycle on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. →

Deze notitie certificeert de raming van de fiscale beleidsmaatregel uit het wetsvoorstel ‘Wet minimum CO₂-prijs elektriciteitsopwekking’. Het CPB acht de raming van de budgettaire effecten van de maatregel... →

Reactie planbureaus op monitor Brede Welvaart van CBS. →

Deze notitie certificeert de raming van de opbrengst van een nationale vliegbelasting op vertrekkende passagiers- en vrachtvluchten voor exploitanten van luchthavens. Het CPB acht de raming van de budgettaire effecten... →

For both this year and the next, GDP growth is projected at 1.5%, following years of growth percentages of over 2%. International trade is increasing at a slower rate, which is reflected by Dutch exports that are... →

The high growth rate of the Dutch economy is over. →

The high growth rate of the Dutch economy is over. For both this year and the next, GDP growth is projected at 1.5%, following years of growth percentages of over 2%. International trade is increasing at a slower rate,... →

De berekeningswijze en duiding van de Gini-coëfficiënt roept nog vragen op. Dit achtergronddocument gaat daarom nader in op de raming en de duiding van beleidseffecten op de Gini-coëfficiënt.... →

Estimates are by definition uncertain and CPB estimates have regularly underestimated or overestimated the economy. In CEP and MEV it is regularly emphasized that the outcomes are uncertain and this is also the message of the scenarios that are presented. The fan charts provide a quantitative interpretation of the estimation uncertainty.