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In this paper, I present a new toolbox that implements the exact nonlinear and non-Gaussian Kalman smoother for a wide class of discrete-time state space models, including models with implicit functions and equality constraints. →

In this paper, I present a novel implementation of the exact nonlinear and non-Gaussian Kalman smoother that can also deal with implicit functions in the measurement and/or state equations as well as equality constraints. →

For economic forecasting it is important to know how the real economy responds to major events such as the fall of the Soviet Union, the Greek debt crisis, the recent terrorism attacks in Europe, and the Brexit. →

The Lucas critique is an important problem for economic policy analysis. →

At CPB, we have developed two Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) models, one for the Dutch economy and one for the world trade. →

Een inschatting door het CPB van de macro-economische gevolgen van een verdere politieke en militaire escalatie van de situatie in Oekraïne. →

Using a structural vector autoregression with time-varying parameters, I analyze to what extent the dynamic effects of unanticipated changes in tax policy have changed structurally over the post World War II period in the United States. →

The standard time-varying VAR workhorse suffers from overparameterization, which is a serious problem as it limits the number of variables and lags that can be incorporated in the model. →