Publications

Data shows that countries with higher pre-pandemic debt levels implemented more discretionary fiscal policy measures in the Covid-19 pandemic than countries with lower debt levels. This contrasts with theories of fiscal... →

European companies heavily rely on bank credit to finance their operations and investments. Therefore, it is crucial for banks to take risks on corporate loans, although excessive risk-taking can have negative... →

Firms have absorbed the higher costs for gas and electricity with energy savings and price increases for customers. The higher energy prices are expected to lead to only a limited number of additional loss-making firms. →

We compare machine learning techniques to a large Bayesian VAR for nowcasting and forecasting world merchandise trade. We focus on how the predictive performance of the machine learning models changes when they have... →

Interest rates have been trending downward since at least 1980s in developed economies, including the euro area. In fact, real rates (the real rate is the interest rate adjusted for inflation) are now at historically low levels. →

Most of the short-run decline in consumption during the first wave was a voluntary response to the health risks. →

This discussion paper presents further evidence that the most important published estimates of the effects of unconventional monetary policy are not reliable. It is a further elaboration of the ideas in the CPB... →

This research re-examines the findings of the existing literature on the effects of unconventional monetary policy. →

How effective are unconventional monetary policies? Through which mechanisms do they work? This discussion paper contains a detailed presentation of the new scientific evidence we reported in the policy brief, and adds to the relatively scarce literature in this field. →

The question is no longer if, but when and how unconventional monetary policy will be phased out. The undoing of the unconventional policies will affect European economies, just as their build up stimulated the euro area economy. →