December 14, 2010

CPBs short-term forecasts December 2010: Moderate growth in uncertain times

The Dutch economy is expected to grow by 1¾% in 2010. GDP growth will decrease slightly to 1½% during the coming year. According to the economic forecast, unemployment will decrease to 5% of the labour force on average in 2011. Inflation is forecast to be 1¼% this year and 1½% next year.

Main Conclusions
The table 'Extended main economic indicators'
Graph 'Economic growth in the Netherlands, 2008-2011'
Related Publication
Appendix: Main Economic Indicators for the Netherlands, 1970-2011

Main conclusions of CPB’s short-term forecasts December 2010

The Dutch economy is expected to grow by 1¾% in 2010. Next year, GDP growth decelerates somewhat, to 1½%.
The estimated average unemployment rate falls from 5½% of the labour force this year to 5% in 2011.
The government budget defi cit will be 5.8% GDP this year and will decrease to 4.1% GDP in 2011.
Inflation is expected to be moderate in both forecasting years: 1¼% and 1½% respectively. Contractual wage growth in the marketsector will come out at 1% this year and 1½% next year.
The outlook is subject to high uncertainty, due to the ongoing turmoil on financial markets, among others.

Read here the accompanying press release.

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The table 'Extended main economic indicators'

International items
	2008	2009	2010	2011
Relevant world trade volume (%)	1.5	-13.4	10 3/4	4 3/4
Import price goods (%)	4.6	-7.5	6 1/2	1/2
Export price competitors (%)	3.8	-3.1	4 1/4	3/4
Crude oil price (Brent, $)	96.9	61.5	79	84
Exchange rate (dollar per euro)	1.47	1.39	1.33	1.39
Long-term interest rate (%)	4.3	3.7	3	3

Demand and foreign trade (volume)
	2008	2009	2010	2011
Gross domestic product (GDP, economic growth) (%)	1.9	-3.9	1 3/4	1 1/2
Private consumption (%)	1.1	-2.5	1/4	3/4
Public demand (%)	3.0	4.0	1 1/4	-1/2
Gross fixed investment, private non-residential (%)	7.1	-18.2	-3 3/4	2 3/4
Exports of goods (non-energy) (%)	1.2	-9.2	12 3/4	6 1/4
of which domestically produced (%)	-1.4	-10.5	7 1/2	2 1/2
re-exports (%)	3.8	-7.9	17 3/4	9 1/4
Imports of goods (%)	3.3	-10.3	12 1/2	5
Value gross domestic product (GDP) (bln euro)	596.2	572.0	590	607

Prices, wages and purchasing power
	2008	2009	2010	2011
Export price goods (excluding energy) (%)	2.1	-5.3	3 3/4	1/4
Price competitiveness (%)	-0.2	4.1	-1 3/4	1/4
Consumer prices (CPI) (%)	2.5	1.2	1 1/4	1 1/2
Consumer prices (harmonised, HICP) (%)	2.2	1.0	1	1 1/2
Price of gross domestic product (%)	2.4	-0.2	1 1/2	1 1/2
Price of national expenditure (%)	2.1	0.9	1 1/4	1 1/2
Contractual wages market sector (%)	3.5	2.7	1	1 1/2
Compensation per full-time employee market sector (%)	3.5	2.0	2	3 1/4
Gross wage Jones family (in euro's)	31500	32500	32500	32500
Purchasing power (Jones, one-income household) (%)	-0.5	1.9	-1 1/4	-1/2
Purchasing power (median, all households) (%)	0.1	1.8	-1/4	-1/4

Labour market
	2008	2009	2010	2011
Population (x 1000 pers.)	16446	16530	16615	16680
Labour force (15-64) (x 1000 pers.)	7801	7846	7815	7845
Employed labour force (15-64) (x 1000 pers.)	7501	7469	7390	7445
Unemployment (x 1000 pers.)	300	377	425	400
Labour force (15-64) (%)	1.9	0.6	-1/2	1/4
Employed labour force (15-64) (%)	2.6	-0.4	-1	3/4
Unemployment rate (%)	3.8	4.8	5 1/2	5
Idem, international definition (%)	3.1	3.7	4 1/2	4 1/4

Market sector
	2008	2009	2010	2011
Production (%)	1.7	-5.4	1 1/4	2
Labour productivity (%)	0.5	-3.1	3 1/2	1 1/2
Employment (labour years) (%)	1.2	-2.4	-2 1/4	1/2
Price gross value added (%)	0.7	2.6	2	1/2
Real labour costs (%)	2.8	-0.6	0	3
Labour share in enterprise income (level in %)	79.0	80.9	77 3/4	78 1/2
Profit share (of domestic production) (level in %)	13.8	7.7	10	10 1/4

General government
	2008	2009	2010	2011
General government financial balance (% GDP)	0.6	-5.4	-5.8	-4.1
Gross debt general government (% GDP)	58.2	60.8	64.6	66.9
Taxes and social security contributions (% GDP)	39.1	38.2	38.2	38.8