Seminar ‘Benefits of EMU participation: Estimates using the synthetic control method’

Time:                     13:00-14:00 Hrs

Venue:                  CPB-Office, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, Den Haag, room 3 ‘Braamzaal’

Presentation:   Loes Verstegen (UvT)

Discussant :       Leon Bettendorf

Language:          English

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Abstract:

This paper investigates quantitatively the benefits from participation in the Economic and Monetary Union for individual euro area countries. Using the synthetic control method, we estimate how real GDP per capita would have developed for the EMU member states, if those countries had not joined the EMU. The estimates show that most countries have profited from having the euro, at least until the start of the financial crisis. During and after the crisis, some countries would have been better off if they had not joined the EMU. Small open economies profit the most from having the euro, and the PIGS countries would have been better off if they had not been an EMU member during the crisis.

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