Policy seminar "Labour supply and the business cycle: lessons from labour market flows and international forecasting practices"

Time: 13.00-14.00 hours
Location: CPB-office, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, The Hague, room 1, Duinzaal

Presentation: Annette Zeilstra (DNB)

Discussant: Robert-Paul Berben (DNB)

Language: English

Registration:  Please register here

A valid ID card is required for external visitors. Please note that the waiting time at the reception desk can last 5-10 minutes. Guests with a Rijkspas may circumvent the reception desk and directly  go to the seminar room by filling in this form in advance: InterDepartementale Toegang

Abstract subject:
The business cycle may cause large and unexpected labour supply movements. This makes it difficult to forecast labour supply and, in turn, unemployment. We perform a descriptive analysis of the relation between labour market flows and business cycle indicators in order to improve our understanding of cyclical labour supply. We find substantial differences in the flows between demographic groups (e.g. age and education groups), and conclude that using data on gross labour market flows may be useful for developing alternative models to check our central forecast. In addition, we carried out a survey among international experts to construct an overview of short-term labour supply forecasting methods by European institutes. It shows large differences in, for example, the trade-off between modelling structure and flexibility; and details and modelling ease. Some institutes have alternative models to check their central labour supply forecast, which may be useful when CPB will develop alternative models to check our central forecast.

CPB organises seminars for researchers. During these seminars, academic papers are presented and discussed. Seminars are held on Tuesday from 1.00 pm. to 2.00 pm.

CPB organises policy seminars for policy makers, researchers and other stakeholders. Polinars focus on policy implications. Polinars are held on Thursday from 1.00 pm. to 2.00 pm.

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